Forecasting The Number of Train Passenger in Sumatra Using ARIMA Models

Fika Lestauli Sigalingging, Maria Yus Irsan, Junianto Sesa

Abstract


Indonesia is a country that has several means of transportation, one of which is a train. People tend to use the train because it is cheaper than some other means of public transportation. Train passenger data has the same pattern every year, which is always increasing and there is a surge in passengers in June and December. Therefore, it is very important to know the projection of train passengers for the purpose of planning and managing facilities and infrastructure as well as train fares. This work forecast the train passenger by using ARIMA model. ARIMA (2,0,0) is the most suitable model for use with a MSE is 1058.39, RMSE is 32.53, MAE is 1042.05, and MAPE is 31.4%. The forecasting process shows that passengers will have an upward trend pattern for several months starting in January 2019. The estimated train passenger data will be useful for planning train fares and improving facilities and infrastructure in the future.

Keywords


ARIMA; Forecasting; Train; Passenger

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References


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