Prediksi Daerah Potensi Bencana Kebakaran Hutan Akibat Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di Kabupaten Paser, Kalimantan Timur

Maulana Dwi Putra Riyadi, Salis Deris Artikanur, Salim Suliman, Mutia Izzati


Abstract. Forest fires in East Kalimantan in 2019 reached 6,715 hectares. In Paser Regency with an area of 11,603.94 km², the threat of forest and land fires is a sure thing. The fire footprint that occurs is always high every year, this is associated with changes in land cover and rainfall that changes from year to year from 2009 to 2019 and will continue to change until 2035. Objectives: This research aims to predict potential areas of forest and land fires due to land use changes from 2009 to 2035. This step is expected to provide recommendations for mitigating and adapting to forest and land fires that can be implemented in Paser Regency. Method and results: In predicting forest and land fires in 2035, data are needed that includes maps of Earth's appearance, hotspot data, land use maps in 2009 and 2019, Landsat 8 satellite imagery in 2014, maps of soil types, existing rainfall data, and rainfall data predicted by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The tools used in this research are ArcGIS software and Ms. Offices. The results of data processing show that fire hazard predictions in 2035 have a higher and more widespread level of vulnerability. In the low vulnerability area in 2019, which was initially 452,926.69 hectares, it decreased to 411,666.52 hectares in 2035. Conclusion: The map with moderate vulnerability level in 2019 which was originally 164,666.32 hectares increased to 165,695.33 hectares and the map of the area with a moderate level of vulnerability in 2019 increased to 165,695.33 hectares. high vulnerability in 2019 which was initially 426,045.30 hectares rose to 466,383.07 hectares.


Forest Fires; Hotspot; Land Cover Changes; Rainfall


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