Forecasting Weekly Stock Price of PT Ciputra Development Tbk. (CTRA.JK) Using ARIMA Box-Jenkins Method

Ivana Felixia Suharsono, Edwin Setiawan Nugraha

Abstract


The volatility of stock prices in the market demands the ability to predict future prices accurately which helps investors and companies to maximize the profits by risk management and investments allocation, PT Ciputra Development Tbk. is one of the leading property and real estate companies in Indonesia, offering modern concepts. This study focuses on forecasting the weekly stock price of PT Ciputra Development Tbk. using historical weekly closing stock price data from January 01, 2024 to December 31, 2024. The forecast utilized Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Based on the calculations, it is acquired that ARIMA (2, 2, (0) is the best and most efficient model to predict the future stock price, as it achieved the highest accuracy, indicated by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value at 3.213681%.

Keywords


ARIMA model; forecasting; stock price; time series

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