Application of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Method in Forecasting Weekly the Stock Price of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk

Rosda Renata Kezia Simanjuntak

Abstract


PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF.JK) is the highest-ranked Indonesian food company with a diversified spread in some of the biggest sectors such as consumer branded food, flour mills, and agro-businesses. As one of the major forces behind the country's economy, the fluctuation of PT Indofood's share price is a serious. indicator to both investors and financial analysts. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA method is used in this study to forecast PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk's stock price weekly from January 1, 2021, to September 24, 2023. Past stock price data were used to determine the best ARIMA model to use in forecasting future stock prices. The ARIMA (0.2.1) was identified as the most accurate model with the lowest MSE of 41366,51, RMSE of 203,3876, and MAPE of 2.6795%. This result is meaningful information to aid investors and companies in forecasting stock price change, facilitating more informed and strategic investment planning.

Keywords


ARIMA; Forecasting; Stock Price; Time Series Analysis

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