Forecasting Daily Gold Price Using ARIMA Box-Jenkins Method

Fernando William Alexander

Abstract


In this research, the ARIMA time series model is utilized to make predictions of gold prices from March 1, 2025, to May 12, 2025. The prediction of the movement of the price of gold from May 13 to May 17, 2025, is intended. A number of ARIMA settings were tested manually whereby the order of differencing was. designed to be two to deal with non-stationarity. Using AIC and BIC as criteria, the best models were the ARIMA (4,2,0) and ARIMA (4,2,1). These models produced short-term forecasts. The approach seeks transparency in model selection as well as interpretability in order to facilitate informed forecasting.

Keywords


Gold Price; Forecasting, Time Series; ARIMA; Model Selection

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