Forecasting Weekly Stock of PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII) using ARIMA Model

Adelia Sutany

Abstract


Abstract— PT. Astra International Tbk (ASII) is one of the listed companies is (Indonesia Stock Exchange) IDX which focuses in multiple sectors. Stock is one of the important factors in the economy. This paper forecast the weekly stock of ASII from April 6, 2025 until April 27, 2025 by using the data from May 05, 2024 to March 23, 2025. By using Arima Box-Jenkins, the best ARIMA model for this data is the ARIMA (1,1,1) with the MSE value of 24463.64, RMSE of 156.4086, MAE value of 146.184 and MAPE of 3.0737%.


Keywords


ARIMA; Forecasting; Box-Jenkins; Stock; ASII

Full Text:

PDF

References


P. Gratton, “What Is the Stock Market and How Does It Work?,” Investopedia. [Online]. Available: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp

S. Siami-Namini, N. Tavakoli, and A. Siami Namin, “A Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting Time Series,” in 2018 17th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA), Orlando, FL: IEEE, Dec. 2018, pp. 1394–1401. doi: 10.1109/ICMLA.2018.00227.

J. Fattah, L. Ezzine, Z. Aman, H. E. Moussami, and A. Lachhab, “Forecasting of demand using ARIMA model”.

M. Shalahuddin and H. Oktaviyani, “Model Arima Box-Jenkins Untuk Peramalan Pergerakan Harga Saham Pt. Astra International Tbk,” J. Soc. Econ. Res., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 496–506, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.54783/jser.v6i2.715.

J. Saputra, “Forecasting Stock Price of PT. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO.JK) using ARIMA Box- Jenkins Method,” Indones. J. Appl. Math. Stat., vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 79–88, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.71385/idjams.v1i2.14.

A. I. S. Wardhani and M. R. Yudhanegara, “Forecasting Weekly Stock Price of PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) Using ARIMA Box-Jenkins Method,” J. Actuar. Finance Risk Manag., vol. 3, no. 2, p. 20, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.33021/jafrm.v3i2.5564.

A. Olivia and E. S. Nugraha, “Forecasting PT Bank Central Asia Tbk Stock Price Using ARIMA Model,” J. Actuar. Finance Risk Manag., vol. 2, no. 1, p. 20, Jul. 2023, doi: 10.33021/jafrm.v2i1.4563.

A. S. E. Hidayat and J. M. Wiharja, “ARIMA Modeling for Monthly West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Forecasting,” Indones. J. Appl. Math. Stat., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 17–26, Aug. 2024, doi: 10.71385/idjams.v1i1.6.

Q. Abdulgader, “Time Series Forecasting Using Arima Methodology with Application on Census Data in Iraq,” Sci. J. Univ. Zakho, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 258–268, Dec. 2016, doi: 10.25271/2016.4.2.116.

J. Fernando, “Moving Average (MA): Purpose, Uses, Formula, and Examples,” Investopedia. [Online].

Available: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp

P.-C. Chang, Y.-W. Wang, and C.-H. Liu, “The development of a weighted evolving fuzzy neural network for PCB sales forecasting,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 86–96, Jan. 2007, doi: 10.1016/j.eswa.2005.11.021.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Editorial Office:

President University Actuarial Science: Jalan Ki Hajar Dewantara, Mekarmukti, Cikarang Utara, Bekasi 17530