Application of ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Stock Price of PT Telkom Indonesia (Pesero) Tbk (TLKM)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33021/jafrm.v4i2.6338Keywords:
Analysis, ARIMA, Forecasting, Stock PriceAbstract
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM) is a major telecommunication company that is a vital component of Indonesia's digital economy. In addition to offering more products and technologies, TLKM also offers its shares to the public, so how the stock performs is a major indicator of the company's market worth and investor confidence. Forecasting stock prices is therefore crucial, as this allows the company and investors to forecast potential dangers and make wise decisions. In this study, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method is applied to forecast TLKM's weekly stock prices based on historical data from April 2024 to April 2025, totaling 50 observations obtained via Investing.com. The best fit model, according to the analysis, is ARIMA (4,1,1) with MSE 11506,68, RMSE 107,2692, MAE 63,9526 and MAPE 1,84%. This result helps investors and companies better predict stock price changes, allowing them to make the best investment decisions.References
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