Pelemahan Kekuatan Rusia di Suriah dan Transisi Hegemonik Kekuasaan Bashar al-Assad
Abstract
Artikel ini menganalisis hubungan kausalitas antara melemahnya pengaruh Rusia di Suriah dan transisi hegemoni kekuasaan Bashar al-Assad. Penelitian sebelumnya telah membahas hubungan antara Uni Sovit dan Partai Ba’ath, fragmentasi oposisi, krisis kemanusiaan dan ketegangan geopolitik di Suriah. Artikel ini mengisi kesenjangan teoritis dari riset-riset terdahulu dengan menggunakan tiga konsep dari pemikiran Antonio Gramsci, yakni blok historis (historical bloc), transisi hegemonik (hegemonic transition), dan interregnum. Penelusuran proses (process tracing) digunakan sebagai cara menguraikan proses kausal dengan melihat pada urutan kejadian dan hubungan sebab akibat. Argumen artikel ini adalah bahwa blok historis Rusia-Suriah yang terbentuk sejak era Soviet hingga pra kejatuhan Assad melemah karena tiga faktor: (1) pergeseran fokus Rusia ke dua fokus berbeda, yang melemahkan hubungan material (ekonomi-militer) dan non-material (ideologis); (2) meningkatknya tekanan oposisi domestik dari aliansi sosial (social alliance) anti-rezim; da (3) tekanan internasional yang mendorong pergeseran hegemoni Assad. Dalam konteks ini, interregnum yang dimaknai sebagai fase ketidakpastian, berkontribusi pada transisi kekuasaan Assad dan mendorong perubahan formasi politik di Suriah.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Adamson, Walter L. (1980). Hegemony and Revolution, A Study of Antonio Gramsci’s Political and Cultural Theory. London: University of California Press.
Aghayev, Elvin, and Filiz Katman. 2012. “Historical Background and the Present State of the Russian-Syrian Relations.†European Researcher 35.
Akgüden, Muhterem. (2020). “The 2015 Russian Military Intervention in Syria: A Neo-Gramscian Hegemony Approach.†Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences.
Akgüden, Muhterem, and Ayşe Ömür Atmaca. (2023). “The Roots of the Soviet-Syrian Alliance: A Neo-Gramscian Perspective.†İzmir İktisat Dergisi 38 (4): 1176–93. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1163636.
Al-Basre, Mustafa Kanaan NORI. (2023). “The Russion Role in the Middle East (Syria) 2013-202.†Sakarya University.
Ajansı, Anadolu. (2024). “Rezim Baath Suriah Yang Berkuasa Selama 61 Tahun Tumbang.†Anadolu Ajansı. December 16, 2024. https://www.aa.com.tr/id/dunia/rezim-baath-suriah-yang-berkuasa-selama-61-tahun-tumbang-pada-8-desember/3418397#.
Alshamary, Marsin, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Jeffrey Feltman, Sharan Grewal, Steven Heydemann, Mara Karlin, et al. (2024). “The Assad Regime Falls. What Happens Now?†Brookings. Routledge. December 9, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2024.2334789.
Barghoorn, Frederick C. (1958). “Soviet Cultural Diplomacy since Stalin.†Russian Review 17 (1): 41–55. http://www.jstor.org/stable/125724.
Bartz, Luke. (2016). “Russian-Syrian Relations: Past and Present.†The Journal of Global Affairs 6 (6). https://shareok.org/handle/11244.46/79.
Beach, Derek. (2023). “Process Tracing Methods and International Studies.†Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.724.
Borshchevskaya, Anna. (2020). “The Russian Way of War in Syria: Threat Perception and Approaches to Counterterrorism.†USA: The Washington Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/09/about-the-book-russia-war-syria/.
Collier, David. (2011). “Understanding Process Tracing.†PS - Political Science and Politics 44 (4): 823–30. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096511001429.
Cox, Robert W. (1985). “Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory.†Millenium: Journal of International Studies 10 (2): 126–55. https://doi.org/10.1177/03058298810100020501.
Dawisha, Karen. (1979). “The Soviet Union and the Middle East: Strategy at the Crossroads?†The World Today 35 (3): 91–100. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003195641.
Dostal, Jörg Michael. (2015). “Syria and the Great Powers (1946-1958): How Western Power Politics Pushed the Country Toward the Soviet Union.†Syria Studies 7 (4): 1–76. https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/handle/10023/10346.
Drache, Daniel, and José Luis Valdés Ugalde. (2009). “The International System: Hinge Moments and Structural Long-Term Trends. A Canadian Perspective Interview with Robert W. Cox.†Norteamérica.
Even, Yair. (2016). “Two Squadrons and Their Pilots: The First Syrian Request for the Deployment of Soviet Military Forces on Its Territory, 1956.†77. Pennsylvania.
Ghafur, M F. (2017). “Pergulatan Antara Islam Dan Otoritarianisme Di Suriah: Sebuah Pembelajaran.†Tashwirul Afkar, no. 36. https://tashwirulafkar.or.id/index.php/afkar/article/view/289%0Ahttps://tashwirulafkar.or.id/index.php/afkar/article/download/289/212.
Gills, Barry. (1993). “The Hegemonic Transition in East Asia: A Historical Perspective.†In Gramsci, Historical Materialism and International Relations, edited by Stephen Gill, 185–212. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Ginat, Rami. (2000). “The Soviet Union and the Syrian Ba’th Regime: From Hesitation to Rapprochement.†Middle Eastern Studies 36 (2): 150–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200008701312.
Ginor, Isabella. 2003. “The Cold War’s Longest Cover-Up: How and Qhy the USSR Instigated the 1967 War.†Middle East Review of International Affairs 7 (3): 27–52. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315234304-2.
Gowayed, Heba, Imad K. Harb, Bahraa Hijazi, Khalil E. Jahshan, Patricia Karam, and Annelle Sheline. (2024). “Implications of Assad’s Fall for Syria and the Region.†Arab Center. December 10, 2024. https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/implications-of-assads-fall-for-syria-and-the-region/.
Kabalan, Marwan. (2024). “Al-Assad’s Fall Is Iran and Russia’s Loss, but Are There Winners?†Al Jazeera. December 10, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/analysis-al-assads-downfall-has-upended-the-regional-balance-of-power.
Krókowska, Katarzyna. (2011). “The Fall of Democracy in Syria.†Perceptions 16 (2): 81–98. http://libproxy.lib.unc.edu/login?url=https://search.proquest.com/docview/920195464?accountid=14244%0Ahttp://vb3lk7eb4t.search.serialssolutions.com/?genre=article&atitle=The+Fall+of+Democracy+in+Syria&author=Krókowska%2C+Katarzyna&volume=16&issue=2&spage=.
Lund, Aron. (2019). “From Cold War to Civil War: 75 Years of Russian-Syrian Relations.†7/2019. Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI). Sweden. https://www.ui.se/globalassets/ui.se-eng/publications/ui-publications/2019/ui-paper-no.-7-2019.pdf.
Mudore, Syarif Bahaudin, and Nurlaila Safitri. (2019). “Dinamika Perang Suriah: Aktor Dan Kepentingan.†Politea : Jurnal Politik Islam: Jurnal Politik Islam 2 (2): 67–92. https://doi.org/10.20414/politea.v2i2.1437.
Oligie, Clement Ndidi. (2019). “Why Russia Is Involved in the Syrian Civil War: One Issue, Many Views.†Relationes Internationales 12 (1): 93–136. https://core.ac.uk/outputs/268089795.
Outzen, Rich. (2025). “Assad’s Fall Has Created an Opportunity for US-Turkey Cooperation.†Atlantic Council. January 6, 2025. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/assads-fall-has-created-an-opportunity-for-us-turkey-cooperation/.
Phillips, Christopher. (2022). “The International System and the Syrian Civil War.†International Relations 36 (3): 358–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178221097908.
Phoenna, Riezky Poetra, Chandra Purnama, and Windy Dermawan. (2023). “Kebijakan Militer Rusia Terhadap Suriah Dalam Mendukung Rezim Bashar Al-Assad (2015-2020).†Aliansi: Jurnal Politik, Keamanan Dan Hubungan Internasional 2 (1): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.24198/aliansi.v2i1.45348.
Reich, Bernard, and Stephen H. Gotowicki. (1994). “The United States and the Soviet Union in the Middle East.†In The Decline of The Soviet Union and The Transformation of The Middle East, edited by David H. Goldberg and Paul Marantz, 212–28. London & New York: Westview Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/1173976.
Şen, Ayça Hüma. (2020). “Russion-Syrian Relations Since the Arab Spring: A Strong Alliance.†Middle East Technical University.
Shad, Tahir I, Tahir L Shad, Steven Boucher, and Jennifer Gray Reddish. (1995). “Syrian Foreign Policy in the Post Soviet Era.†Arab Studies Quarterly 17 (1): 77–94.
Smith, Nicholas. (2019). “Using Process-Tracing to Drive Foreign Policy Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses in the Context of Analyzing the Foreign Policies of the EU and Russia in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis.†Using Process-Tracing to Drive Foreign Policy Analysis: Strengths and Weaknesses in the Context of Analyzing the Foreign Policies of the EU and Russia in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis, no. May. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526462404.
Stahl, Rune Møller. (2019). “Ruling the Interregnum: Politics and Ideology in Nonhegemonic Times.†Politics and Society 47 (3): 333–60. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329219851896.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.33021/aegis.v9i1.5903
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2025 AEGIS : Journal of International Relations
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
 .png)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.