Forecasting the Number of Goods Transported in Java Using ARIMA Models

Chelisca Natasha, Fauziah Nur Fahirah Suding

Abstract


As the most populated island in Java, the island needs to have very efficient out-of-town land transportation. The train is really important transportation in Java. To avoid an unexpected surge in delivering the goods, proper forecasting is required. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model is a method that can be used to predict the number of goods transported in the future. In this analysis, ARIMA (1,1,0) is the best model to use because it has the smallest MAPE among the other model which is 66.6%.  The objective of this analysis is to predict the number of goods so the train company can anticipate surges in delivering the goods and may be useful in handling the number of goods in the future by making efficient policies.

Keywords


ARIMA, Trains, Forecasting

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References


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